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External Migration August 2004
Commentary ...
There were 152,100 short-term overseas visitor arrivals to New Zealand in August 2004, up 16,800 or 12 percent on August 2003.
The number of stay days for all visitor arrivals in August 2004 was down 1 percent on August 2003, from 2.45 million days to 2.42 million days. The average length of stay was 16 days in August 2004, compared with 18 days in August 2003.
Seasonally adjusted monthly visitor arrivals fell less than 1 percent in August 2004, following a fall of less than 1 percent in July 2004.
During the year ended August 2004, there were 2.295 million visitor arrivals, up 248,900 (12 percent) on the August 2003 year. Holidaymakers accounted for 51 percent (1,176,600) of the overseas visitors; 28 percent (635,500) came to visit friends and relatives (VFR); 10 percent (238,800) came on business; 2 percent (49,600) came for a conference; and a further 2 percent (47,200) came for education/medical reasons. Holiday arrivals in the August 2004 year were up 115,900 (11 percent) compared with the August 2003 year. There were also more VFR visitors (up 91,100 or 17 percent), business travellers (up 24,600 or 11 percent) and visitors attending a conference (up 10,100 or 26 percent), but there was a drop in education/medical visitors (down 3,700 or 7 percent).
(Note: Provisional weekly and four-weekly visitor arrivals data is available on the Statistics New Zealand website: www.stats.govt.nz. This data is updated each week with the most recently available information on visitor arrivals from the 10 major source countries.)
- Visitors by source country
In August 2004, there were more visitors from Australia (up 10,500 or 19 percent), Japan (up 2,300 or 20 percent), the United States (up 2,200 or 21 percent), China (up 1,900 or 49 percent) and the United Kingdom (up 400 or 4 percent). Visitor arrivals from countries in Asia dropped from 40,600 in August 2002 to 34,300 in August 2003, as a response to the SARS virus. In August 2004, the figure was 36,900, down 9 percent on 2002.
Compared with the August 2003 year, there were more visitors from all the major regions in the year ended August 2004, with increases ranging from 4 percent (Americas) to 20 percent (Oceania). Australia (up 151,000 or 23 percent) provided the largest annual increase in visitors from an individual country. Other countries with increased visitor arrivals for the August 2004 year include the United Kingdom (up 26,200 or 10 percent), China (up 13,500 or 21 percent), the United States (up 8,200 or 4 percent) and Japan (up 7,700 or 5 percent).
(Note: Detailed visitor data is available in the August 2004 edition of the Statistics New Zealand report Tourism – International Visitor Arrivals, which can be ordered via the Statistics New Zealand website: www.stats.govt.nz)
- New Zealand resident departures
New Zealand residents departed on 162,700 short-term overseas trips in August 2004, an increase of 37,400 (30 percent) on August 2003.
In August 2004, New Zealand residents went on more trips to Australia (up 20,100 or 32 percent), Fiji (up 3,700 or 44 percent), the United States (up 1,800 or 26 percent), the United Kingdom (up 1,000 or 15 percent), the Cook Islands (up 800 or 27 percent) and China (up 700 or 35 percent).
On a seasonally adjusted basis, New Zealand resident departures decreased by 2 percent between July and August 2004, following a rise of 5 percent between June and July 2004.
The number of intended days away for resident departures in August 2004 increased by 25 percent to 2.94 million days, compared with the previous August. The average intended length of absence was 18 days in August 2004, compared with 19 days in August 2003.
In the year ended August 2004, resident departures totalled 1.630 million, up 325,800 (25 percent) on the previous August year (1.305 million). There were more trips to Australia (up 162,800 or 24 percent), Fiji (up 24,300 or 37 percent), China (up 15,500 or 55 percent), the United States (up 11,400 or 17 percent), the United Kingdom (up 10,800 or 17 percent) and Thailand (up 5,500 or 37 percent). Annual resident departures to countries in Oceania exceeded the one million mark for the first time in the year ended August 2004.
Holidaymakers accounted for 44 percent (720,300) of the departures during the August 2004 year. A further 29 percent (476,500) left to visit friends and relatives, 15 percent (241,500) went on business, 3 percent (54,000) attended a conference and 2 percent (24,500) went for education/medical reasons.
(Note: Provisional weekly and four-weekly resident departures data is available on the Statistics New Zealand website: www.stats.govt.nz. This data is updated each week with the most recently available information on resident departures to the 10 major destinations.)
- Permanent and long-term migration
Definition
Permanent and long-term (PLT) arrivals include people who arrive in New Zealand intending to stay for a period of 12 months or more (or permanently), plus New Zealand residents returning after an absence of 12 months or more. Included in the former group are people with New Zealand residency as well as students and holders of work permits. Permanent and long-term departures include New Zealand residents departing for an intended period of 12 months or more (or permanently), plus overseas visitors departing from New Zealand after a stay of 12 months or more.
Analysis
PLT arrivals exceeded departures by 900 in August 2004, compared with 2,200 in August 2003. This decrease can be attributed to 1,000 fewer PLT arrivals and 200 more PLT departures. The main reason for the drop in PLT arrivals was a fall in non-New Zealand citizen arrivals (down 800). PLT arrivals have now dropped in each of the past 18 months when compared with the same month a year earlier, while PLT departures have increased in each of the past 13 months. As a result, the net PLT figure has decreased in each of the past 15 months.
In August 2004, there was a net inflow from the United Kingdom (800), but a net outflow to Australia (1,000).
The seasonally adjusted series recorded a net PLT inflow of 1,000 in August 2004, down from 1,300 in July 2004.
Permanent and Long-term Migration
By country of citizenship
In the year ended August 2004, there were 82,500 PLT arrivals, down 13,700 (14 percent) on the August 2003 year. Over the same period, PLT departures increased by 8,100 (15 percent) to reach 63,200. The overall result was a net migration gain of 19,300 in the August 2004 year, 53 percent lower than the net inflow of 41,200 people in the previous August year. This is the first time since January 2002 that the annual net migration gain has dropped below 20,000. Compared with the August 2003 year, non-New Zealand citizen arrivals were down 12,500 and non-New Zealand citizen departures were up 4,500. There were 1,300 fewer New Zealand citizen arrivals and 3,600 more New Zealand citizen departures.
In the year ended August 2004, there was a net PLT inflow of 9,500 from the United Kingdom, up 3 percent on the August 2003 year figure (9,200). There was also a net inflow from China of 4,200, down from a net inflow of 13,600 in the August 2003 year. Overall, net PLT inflow from Asia has reduced considerably, from 29,000 in the August 2003 year, to 12,300 in the August 2004 year. There was a net outflow to Australia of 13,000 in the August 2004 year.
Over the past decade, annual PLT arrivals peaked in July 1996 (82,000) before dropping over the next three years to 56,300 in June 1999. Arrivals then increased to reach an all-time high of 98,700 in the year ended February 2003. Since then, annual PLT arrivals have gradually dropped to 82,500 in August 2004. Over the same period, annual PLT departures rose steadily to reach a peak of 79,300 in May 2001 before falling to 54,700 in July 2003, and then rising to 63,200 in August 2004.
As a result of the changes in annual PLT arrivals and departures, annual net PLT migration has fluctuated significantly. After reaching a high of 30,200 in April 1996, there were reducing net inflows over the next two years and then net outflows between 1998 and 2001. Following the net loss of 13,200 in the February 2001 year, there was a change in the direction of the net flow during 2001, followed by a rapid increase to a peak of 42,500 in the May 2003 year. The annual net PLT migration had dropped 23,200 by August 2004, to 19,300.
Split PLT data
Statistics New Zealand began separately identifying permanent arrivals from long-term arrivals in July 2003 (departing migrants are also separately identified). Within the long-term group, a further distinction is made between overseas visitors coming to stay in New Zealand for 12 months or more (long-term overseas visitors) and New Zealand residents returning after an overseas stay of 12 months or more (long-term New Zealand residents).
The classification of a person as a permanent or long-term migrant depends on their responses to the questions on the arrival and departure cards. Both cards require completion of one of two sections, depending on whether or not the person feels that they live or have lived in New Zealand. The choice of which section to complete is up to the individual, and the answer may result in a person being misclassified – usually as a permanent migrant instead of a long-term migrant.
Of the 5,600 PLT arrivals in August 2004, there were 2,100 permanent migrants, and 2,100 long-term visitors. A further 1,400 arrivals were classed as long-term New Zealand residents. For more information on the separate identification of permanent and long-term migrants, including data quality issues, see the External Migration: September 2003 Hot Off The Press.
- Eight million arrivals and departures
More than eight million people crossed New Zealand's borders in the August 2004 year – almost twice New Zealand's population of 4.061 million (provisional estimated resident population as at 30 June 2004). There were 4.022 million arrivals and 4.014 million departures. The increase from seven million to eight million international passenger movements took just nine months.
In 1954, there were only 108,000 movements in and out of New Zealand and it was not until the August 1973 year that the first million mark was reached. There were five million passenger movements in the June 1996 year, six million in the July 2000 year and seven million movements just over three years later in the November 2003 year. The eight million movements in the year ended August 2004 consisted of 4.615 million overseas visitors, 3.275 million New Zealand residents, and 146,000 permanent and long-term movements.
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