New Zealand Now - People and Places (Census 96) (1996) - Reference Reports
What It's About

Chapter 1

An introduction
On 5 March 1996 New Zealand conducted its thirtieth census, 145 years after the first general census was held in this country. Since 1881, with the exception of 1931 (the Depression) and 1941 and 1946 (because of World War II), a census has been held in New Zealand every five years.

A census effectively works like a time capsule, providing a snapshot of a population at a given point in time. Everyone in the country on census night is required to fill in a questionnaire, providing a unique opportunity to produce the most comprehensive, up-to-date information on the size, structure, social and economic characteristics and location of all residents in the country on that day.

Census results are used in many areas including policy development, planning and monitoring. A variety of government organisations access this unique data source as well as private companies, community groups and individuals.

Report coverage
People and Places draws on the latest Census of Population and Dwellings, as well as other sources, to explore the way our population has changed over time. The report looks at the size of the New Zealand population and the main components of population change. It examines the age, sex and ethnic structure of the population, as well as its geographical distribution and mobility patterns. Finally, expected changes in the future New Zealand population are highlighted.

How many people?
On the night of 5 March 1996, there were 3,681,546 people in New Zealand. This is a total or de facto count and covers everyone including overseas visitors. New Zealand’s increasing popularity as an international tourist destination, however, means that including overseas visitors in population comparisons can, over time, exaggerate the growth of the New Zealand population. For this reason the report mainly focuses on the usually resident population.

The number of New Zealanders counted by the census was 3,618,302. This figure excludes residents temporarily away overseas on census night. Residents who were in New Zealand but away from their usual address on census night, have been, for the purposes of spatial analysis, placed back into the area where they usually live.

Census coverage
While the census endeavours to count everyone, there are always some people who are missed. Some will have slipped through unintentionally, while others may have made a conscious choice to avoid completing the census (eg overstayers). In 1996 for the first time in New Zealand, a Post Enumeration Survey (PES) was conducted following the Census of Population and Dwellings. It involved re-counting a random sample of 10,000 dwellings covered by the national census, using carefully trained interviewers. The main objective was to measure the completeness of census coverage (ie to gauge the extent to which individuals were missed or counted more than once in the census).

The PES results have just been released and these indicate that the 1996 Census undercounted New Zealand residents by 1.2 percent. The net undercount of around 43,000 people resulted from an undercount of 49,000, offset by 6,000 people being counted more than once. The New Zealand net undercount of 1.2 percent compares favourably with census undercount of other countries. In Australia 1.6 percent of the population was missed in their 1996 Census, 1.6 percent in the United States 1990 Census and 1.9 percent in the United Kingdom 1991 Census.

The PES also found a significantly higher net undercount rate for men than for women; for young adults than for those aged 45 years and over; and for Mäori and Pacific Island people than for Europeans. For more detailed results, the reader is referred to the forthcoming report on the 1996 Post Enumeration Survey.

Population growth
Historically, the level of growth in the New Zealand population has fluctuated. Following World War II, New Zealand’s population grew by more than 2 percent per year as a result of high fertility and net immigration. Between the censuses of 1951 and 1966 around three-quarters of a million people were added to the population, an increase of 37.7 percent, as is seen in figure 1.1. Rapid fertility declines in the 1960s and 1970s saw the contribution from natural increase (births less deaths) fall. During 1971-1976 lower levels of natural increase were offset by an upturn in immigration and an average annual growth rate of 1.8 percent was achieved. This rise was a short-lived phenomenon, however, and by 1977 net immigration (more people arriving than departing) had turned to net emigration (more people departing than arriving).

As a result of a net migration outflow of more than 100,000 people, the 1976-1981 period recorded an average growth rate of just 0.3 percent per year. Although exhibiting considerable annual volatility, immigration added little to New Zealand’s population during the next decade. The average annual growth rate of 0.7 percent between 1981 and 1991 was almost solely attributable to natural increase, as the number of women of childbearing age rose.

Between 1991 and 1996 the New Zealand resident population grew by 244,375 or an average of 1.4 percent per year – around twice the rate of growth recorded in the two preceding intercensal periods. Migration gains contributed around one-third of the 1991-1996 intercensal population growth.

These average growth rates do disguise some of the variation that occurs between years. During the 1991-1996 period for example, the contribution to population growth from migration varied widely, ranging from around one-tenth in the March 1992 year to one-half in the March 1996 year.

Figure 1.1
Average Annual Resident Population Growth, 1951-1996


Source: Statistics New Zealand, Censuses of Population and Dwellings, 1951-1996

International standing
By international standards, New Zealand’s recent level of population growth is relatively high. Among the selected countries shown in figure 1.2, New Zealand had the highest average annual level of growth over the latest available five-year period. Four of the countries shown had annual average growth rates of 0.4 percent or less. In at least two of these countries (Sweden and Denmark), net migration contributed over half of the growth.

Figure 1.2
Average Annual Total Population Growth Rate for Selected Countries,
1991-1996


Source: various (see bibliography) Internet (ABS, Statistics Canada, United Nations and UNPFA), Demographic Trends, Censuses of Population and Dwellings, 1991 and 1996

Summary
There were 3,681,546 people in New Zealand on census night, including 63,244 overseas visitors.

Between 1991 and 1996, the New Zealand population increased by 244,375 people or an average of 1.4 percent per year – well above the level recorded in the three preceding intercensal periods.