Sustainable Development: New Zealand's changing population
Note: The population projections presented in this document may have been superseded by more recent population projections. For the latest projections, go to Population.
Current trends suggest that New Zealand in the future will have a small, ethnically diverse, ageing and geographically mobile population. New Zealand’s development and progress is closely linked to changes in the structure and growth of its population. The number of people living in New Zealand, where they live, and their demographic features will impact on: resources used, waste generated, economic growth, and the kind of community they live in.
Population statistics are important components of a variety of sustainable development indicators. Population counts provide the denominator in measures such as income, waste generation, investment, rates of employment and unemployment, and so on. Demographic projections paint a picture of the future size, age, gender and ethnic composition of our population.
This chapter covers:
How is New Zealand’s changing population relevant to sustainable development?
Changes in population size, composition, distribution and growth are elements affecting the long-term sustainability of the social, cultural, economic and natural environment in which New Zealanders will live in the future. The following population changes and trends are likely to affect New Zealand’s development path:
- The population is becoming more ethnically diverse. Increasing ethnic diversity means different lifestyles, culture, and ways of participating in society.
- A more ethnically diverse, ageing workforce that is a smaller proportion of the total population may place different demands on the educational system, as people need to change skills to remain or become more productive during their working lives.
- In the recent past, the faster growth of the Mäori population than the general population has coincided with increasing political engagement with Mäori issues and a higher profile for Mäori language and culture.
- The population is becoming older on average. The future needs of people aged 65 years and over may be quite different to those of the present. People in this age group are also likely to have better health and may enjoy a longer retirement.
- Changes in the mix of resources and the types of resources available will be needed for retirement planning, income support and the provision of health, disability, housing and recreational services. Overall, an ageing population is expected to consume more health care and social assistance.
- A larger older population may play a more active role in supporting families and communities. Changes in the ethnic composition of people aged 65 years and over may require new approaches to this sector of the population. These people may contribute to society in different ways and have different skills to the current population aged 65 years and over.
- Further changes to family formation dynamics are likely. Smaller households and changing family structures may result in different types of housing needs in the future.
- There are likely to be lower overall costs of schooling if the number of children in New Zealand continues to fall (assuming there is no change in per capita spending).
- The changing population of New Zealand may affect how people interact with the environment. For example, growing ethnic diversity in New Zealand has led to different consumption patterns. An ageing population with the health resources to enjoy our natural environment may put pressure on the ecosystem.
- The changing mix and distribution of the population may change patterns of access to government and business services.
- Rapid population growth in particular areas of New Zealand (particularly Auckland) may put pressure on the physical infrastructure of cities and existing social services, and stretch the availability of resources such as water, land and housing.
- The changing distribution of the population is also likely to have implications for patterns of economic growth and investment, and for employment opportunities.
Current situation and trends
The size of New Zealand’s resident population is the result of the relationship between natural increase (excess of births over deaths), and net external migration (flows of residents and non-residents who migrate on a permanent or long-term basis).
Monitoring Progress Towards a Sustainable New Zealand
Population size and growth
The age structure of the population
Ethnic diversity
Components of population change
References and further information
back to top
For enquiries and information requests
This page last modified on: 08 March 2004